The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index Increases

The Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.2% in October, following a 0.4% increase in September and a 0.3% decrease in August.

Says Ken Goldstein, Labor Economist at The Conference Board: "In sum, the impact of a slower housing market on consumers and slower profit growth on business isn't completely offset by lower gas prices and a rising stock market. This suggests that the economy is unlikely either to reheat or to get significantly cooler. Instead, the kind of slow growth now being experienced could continue right through the winter and into the spring."

The Conference Board reports that the Coincident Index, a major barometer of current economic activity, increased 0.1% in October, following a 0.2% increase in September and August. The lagging index increased 0.2% in October and September, following no change in August.

The Conference Board® U.S. Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for October 2006

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in October.

• The leading index increased again in October, and there was an upward revision to September's small increase. From April to October, the leading index fell by 0.2 percent (a -0.4 percent annual rate). Housing permits continued to make the largest negative contribution to the leading index in this period, followed by vendor performance, offsetting large positive contributions from real money supply (M2) and consumer expectations. Strengths and weaknesses have been roughly balanced among the leading indicators in recent months.

  

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